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DGF
Conference of 2007
Finance Center Münster
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We study the degree of overreaction and its potential causes and consequences in a controlled experimental setting with 104 participants. The majority of participants tend to overreact, however, the degree of overreaction is heterogeneous. A few subjects even underreact. We also measure the overconfidence of the participants with a miscalibration scale. In line with theoretical predictions we find that more overconfident subjects overreact more. We also find that overreaction is associated with higher levels of risk taking after good signals and lower levels of risk taking after bad signals. Finally, overreaction harms portfolio efficiency, as measured by the Sharpe ratio.
Abstract
Overreaction and Investment Choices: An Experimental Analysis
Biais, Bruno; Nosic, Alen; Weber, MartinWe study the degree of overreaction and its potential causes and consequences in a controlled experimental setting with 104 participants. The majority of participants tend to overreact, however, the degree of overreaction is heterogeneous. A few subjects even underreact. We also measure the overconfidence of the participants with a miscalibration scale. In line with theoretical predictions we find that more overconfident subjects overreact more. We also find that overreaction is associated with higher levels of risk taking after good signals and lower levels of risk taking after bad signals. Finally, overreaction harms portfolio efficiency, as measured by the Sharpe ratio.