Abstract

Annuitization and Retirement Timing Decisions

Shi, Zhen

This paper analyzes retirement timing decisions of DC (Defined Contribution) pension plan members. In this paper the optimal annuitization timing decision is incorporated into the retirement timing decision. I first develop a retirement decision model and generate a forward looking retirement likelihood measure from this model. This measure describes the probability that an individual will retire within the next few years. In the model, the individual obtains utility from leisure, labor income before retirement and pension benefit after retirement. The DC pension benefit is the income from the annuity which is bought at the optimal time. The retirement likelihood measure is then tested with the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data. From investigating the retirement decisions of the sample members in the second wave of ELSA, I conclude that the retirement likelihood measure is a good predictor of actual retirement decisions.
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